Conservation of Mass and Preservation of Positivity with Ensemble-Type Kalman Filter Algorithms

This paper considers the incorporation of constraints to enforce physically based conservation laws in the ensemble Kalman filter. In particular, constraints are used to ensure that the ensemble members and the ensemble mean conserve mass and remain nonnegative through measurement updates. In certain situations filtering algorithms such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) yield updated ensembles that conserve mass but are negative, even though the actual states must be nonnegative. In such situations if negative values are set to zero, or a log transform is introduced, the total mass will not be conserved. In this study, mass and positivity are both preserved by formulating the filter update as a set of quadratic programming problems that incorporate non-negativity constraints. Simple numerical experiments indicate that this approach can have a significant positive impact on the posterior ensemble distribution, giving results that are more physically plausible both for individual ensemble members and for the ensemble mean. In two examples, an update that includes a non-negativity constraint is able to properly describe the transport of a sharp feature (e.g., a triangle or cone). A number of implementation questions still need to be addressed, particularly the need to develop a computationally efficient quadratic programming update for large ensemble

Mass Conservation and Positivity Preservation with Ensemble-type Kalman Filter Algorithms

Maintaining conservative physical laws numerically has long been recognized as being important in the development of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In the broader context of data assimilation, concerted efforts to maintain conservation laws numerically and to understand the significance of doing so have begun only recently. In order to enforce physically based conservation laws of total mass and positivity in the ensemble Kalman filter, we incorporate constraints to ensure that the filter ensemble members and the ensemble mean conserve mass and remain nonnegative through measurement updates. We show that the analysis steps of ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) algorithm and ensemble Kalman filter algorithm (EnKF) can conserve the mass integral, but do not preserve positivity. Further, if localization is applied or if negative values are simply set to zero, then the total mass is not conserved either. In order to ensure mass conservation, a projection matrix that corrects for localization effects is constructed. In order to maintain both mass conservation and positivity preservation through the analysis step, we construct a data assimilation algorithms based on quadratic programming and ensemble Kalman filtering. Mass and positivity are both preserved by formulating the filter update as a set of quadratic programming problems that incorporate constraints. Some simple numerical experiments indicate that this approach can have a significant positive impact on the posterior ensemble distribution, giving results that are more physically plausible both for individual ensemble members and for the ensemble mean. The results show clear improvements in both analyses and forecasts, particularly in the presence of localized features. Behavior of the algorithm is also tested in presence of model error

Validation of coastal forecasts

Deliverable D2.3 del Proyecto MyWave: A pan-European concerted and integrated approach to operational wave modelling and forecasting – a complement to GMES MyOcean services. Work programme topic: SPA.2011.1.5.03 – R&D to enhance future GMES applications in the Marine and Atmosphere areas.Funded under: FP7-SPACE-2011-284455

The longitudinal association between externalizing and internalizing problems : an exploration of the Dual Failure Model

Abstract : The Dual Failure Model suggests that peer victimization (social failure) and academic difficulties (academic failure) mediate the association between externalizing and later internalizing problems. The present study sought to better understand why children with externalizing problems develop later internalizing problems by testing the Dual Failure Model using a sample of 744 children (aged 6 to 10 at Time 1 [T1]), of whom 434 (44.7% girls) presented with high levels of conduct problems at study inception. Both parent and teacher ratings of externalizing and internalizing problems support the social failure pathway, but not the academic failure pathway. Children with externalizing behaviors at T1 who developed internalizing problems 2 years later did so via their experiences of peer victimization. These results apply for both boys and girls and do not vary according to child age at T1 or the level of conduct problems at study inception. These findings underscore the importance of early screening and intervention for externalizing behavioral problems in order to reduce subsequent peer victimization and internalizing problems. Findings regarding the consequences of internalizing are also discussed

The BASE-platform project: Deriving the bathymetry from combined satellite data

The project »BAthymetry SErvice platform« (BASE-platform) addresses the lack of available up-to-date, high-resolution bathymetry data in many areas of the world. With the increasing number of earth observation satellites, e.g. by the ongoing deployment of ESA’s Sentinel fleet, remote sensing data of the oceans are widely available. Three sources of satellite information are combined in BASE-platform: optical, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and altimetry data. BASEplatform’s ambition is to use these data for creating bathymetric maps and supply them to end users via a bathymetry data portal, where data will be available off-the-shelf as well as on demand. Adequate metadata will be provided along with the bathymetry so usability by the end user is ensured

Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard

Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world’s coastlines. In this work we present probabilistic projections of ESLs for the present century taking into consideration changes in mean sea level, tides, wind-waves, and storm surges. Between the year 2000 and 2100 we project a very likely increase of the global average 100-year ESL of 34–76 cm under a moderate-emission-mitigation-policy scenario and of 58–172 cm under a business as usual scenario. Rising ESLs are mostly driven by thermal expansion, followed by contributions from ice mass-loss from glaciers, and ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Under these scenarios ESL rise would render a large part of the tropics exposed annually to the present-day 100-year event from 2050. By the end of this century this applies to most coastlines around the world, implying unprecedented flood risk levels unless timely adaptation measures are taken

Transcription-coupled nucleotide excision repair is coordinated by ubiquitin and SUMO in response to ultraviolet irradiation

Cockayne Syndrome (CS) is a severe neurodegenerative and premature aging autosomal-recessive disease, caused by inherited defects in the CSA and CSB genes, leading to defects in transcription-coupled nucleotide excision repair (TC-NER) and consequently hypersensitivity to ultraviolet (UV) irradiation. TC-NER is initiated by lesion-stalled RNA polymerase II, which stabilizes the interaction with the SNF2/SWI2 ATPase CSB to facilitate recruitment of the CSA E3 Cullin ubiquitin ligase complex. However, the precise biochemical connections between CSA and CSB are unknown. The small ubiquitin-like modifier SUMO is important in the DNA damage response. We found that CSB, among an extensive set of other target proteins, is the most dynamically SUMOylated substrate in response to UV irradiation. Inhibiting SUMOylation reduced the accumulation of CSB at local sites of UV irradiation and reduced recovery of RNA synthesis. Interestingly, CSA is required for the efficient clearance of SUMOylated CSB. However, subsequent proteomic analysis of CSA-dependent ubiquitinated substrates revealed that CSA does not ubiquitinate CSB in a UV-dependent manner. Surprisingly, we found that CSA is required for the ubiquitination of the largest subunit of RNA polymerase II, RPB1. Combined, our results indicate that the CSA, CSB, RNA polymerase II triad is coordinated by ubiquitin and SUMO in response to UV irradiation. Furthermore, our work provides a resource of SUMO targets regulated in response to UV or ionizing radiation

Characteristics of Patients Who Survived < 3 Months or > 2 Years After Surgery for Spinal Metastases: Can We Avoid Inappropriate Patient Selection?

PURPOSE: Survival after metastatic cancer has improved at the cost of increased presentation with metastatic spinal disease. For patients with pathologic spinal fractures and/or spinal cord compression, surgical intervention may relieve pain and improve quality of life. Surgery is generally considered to be inappropriate if anticipated survival is < 3 months. The aim of this international multicenter study was to analyze data from patients who died within 3 months or 2 years after surgery, to identify preoperative factors associated with poor or good survival, and to avoid inappropriate selection of patients for surgery in the future. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 1,266 patients underwent surgery for impending pathologic fractures and/or neurologic deficits and were prospectively observed. Data collected included tumor characteristics, preoperative fitness (American Society of Anesthesiologists advisory [ASA]), neurologic status (Frankel scale), performance (Karnofsky performance score [KPS]), and quality of life (EuroQol five-dimensions questionnaire [EQ-5D]). Outcomes were survival at 3 months and 2 years postsurgery. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to find preoperative factors associated with short-term and long-term survival. RESULTS: In univariable analysis, age, emergency surgery, KPS, EQ-5D, ASA, Frankel, and Tokuhashi/Tomita scores were significantly associated with short survival. In multivariable analysis, KPS and age were significantly associated with short survival (odds ratio [OR], 1.36; 95% CI, 1.15 to 1.62; and OR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.27, respectively). Associated with longer survival in univariable analysis were age, number of levels included in surgery, KPS, EQ-5D, Frankel, and Tokuhashi/Tomita scores. In multivariable analysis, the number of levels included in surgery (OR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.38) and primary tumor type were significantly associated with longer survival. CONCLUSION: Poor performance status at presentation is the strongest indicator of poor short-term survival, whereas low disease load and favorable tumor histology are associated with longer-term survival

Copper-nickel-rich, amalgamated ferromanganese crust-nodule deposits from Shatsky Rise, NW Pacific

A unique set of ferromanganese crusts and nodules collected from Shatsky Rise (SR), NW Pacific, were analyzed for mineralogical and chemical compositions, and dated using Be isotopes and cobalt chronometry. The composition of these midlatitude, deep-water deposits is markedly different from northwest-equatorial Pacific (PCZ) crusts, where most studies have been conducted. Crusts and nodules on SR formed in close proximity and some nodule deposits were cemented and overgrown by crusts, forming amalgamated deposits. The deep-water SR crusts are high in Cu, Li, and Th and low in Co, Te, and Tl concentrations compared to PCZ crusts. Thorium concentrations (ppm) are especially striking with a high of 152 (mean 56), compared to PCZ crusts (mean 11). The deep-water SR crusts show a diagenetic chemical signal, but not a diagenetic mineralogy, which together constrain the redox conditions to early oxic diagenesis. Diagenetic input to crusts is rare, but unequivocal in these deep-water crusts. Copper, Ni, and Li are strongly enriched in SR deep-water deposits, but only in layers older than about 3.4 Ma. Diagenetic reactions in the sediment and dissolution of biogenic calcite in the water column are the likely sources of these metals. The highest concentrations of Li are in crust layers that formed near the calcite compensation depth. The onset of Ni, Cu, and Li enrichment in the middle Miocene and cessation at about 3.4 Ma were accompanied by changes in the deep-water environment, especially composition and flow rates of water masses, and location of the carbonate compensation depth. Key Points - Fe-Mn crusts can have a diagenetic component - Mid-latitude N. Pacific deep-water Fe-Mn crusts are uniquely enriched in Cu, Th, Li - Temporal changes in deep-ocean geochemical processes are recorde